Hopium

When hope becomes addictive

You're hoping for something because hoping for it makes your current misery go away. It's Hopium. Hopium happens when you start to misuse hope as opium. But what exactly is Hopium? Hopium is the excessive reliance on false optimism as a coping mechanism, often at the expense of taking practical action.

Just as opium is highly addictive to any user, Hopium is also highly addictive and versatile in many forms. It's not just simple optimism or occasional procrastination - it's a pattern of behavior that can significantly impact our decision-making and life outcomes.

I see Hopium the most with people who want to do something—people who have the perfect plan. For example, people with a great business idea, but they don't want to start it yet because they have the perfect plan. They have the perfect plan to ace their classes, finish school, work at a prestigious firm, earn a certain income, and then start their business. But the funny thing is, this sounds totally logical to us, yet we know it will never play out. Life has just too many variables. That's why most successful entrepreneurs, if you look at their histories, didn't wait for the perfect moment. They suddenly quit their jobs, they dropped out of school—things that seemed completely illogical at the time.

It's like the couple waiting for the perfect time to have a baby. If you go by people's actual experiences, there's never a perfect time. Life doesn't work that way.

The Versatility of Hopium

But Hopium doesn't just manifest in these larger life decisions; it can creep into the smaller, everyday choices we make. Hopium is versatile, functioning both as a precursor to procrastination and a justification for indulgence.

Not To Be

Take a simple example—letting the trash pile up. You know you should throw it out, but you convince yourself that one more day won't hurt. That's Hopium feeding procrastination. Or you wait until the last hour before a deadline, telling yourself that you can pull it off in the morning, or squeeze it in before the clock runs out. In both cases, you're substituting action with Hopium, convincing yourself it'll all be fine.

To Be

On the other hand, Hopium can also be tied to desire. This form of Hopium shows up with smart people a lot. Say there's a dress you've been eyeing for months. Instead of just impulsively buying it, you spend hours researching reviews, watching YouTube videos, and reading Reddit threads. You're backing your Hopium with a layer of logical reasoning, so when you finally pull the trigger, it feels justified. But in reality, you were always going to buy it—you just gave yourself a more rational-sounding reason.

So, Hopium is indeed very flexible. It manifests both in not taking action (procrastination) and in taking action based on desire (justifying a purchase or decision with excessive reasoning).

The Addiction of Hopium

If you examine the anecdotal examples I gave—the people with "perfect plans" or those who justify their desires with layers of logic—you'll see that they are addicted to Hopium. Hopium is a drug that we subconsciously take because we hope. And Hopium also comes in future forms. For instance, as I'm writing this essay, I'm subconsciously hoping that it will go viral among the tech elites, so I might start writing this in a way that caters to that outcome. Essentially, Hopium is distorting my current decisions.

False Optimism

Hopium manifests in everyday, small decisions—or micro-decisions. Take this situation: You're about to go to sleep, lying in bed, and your phone is already far away. Suddenly, you have the perfect solution to a problem that's been on your mind. You know you should get up and write it down, but you don't. You think, I'll remember it in the morning. But in reality, you never do, and you regret it later. That's Hopium. At that moment, you're substituting the discomfort of getting up with the false hope that it'll all work out later.

Another classic example of Hopium is how people use their credit cards. We all know the logic—we've researched the rules, the interest rates, watched countless YouTube videos explaining credit card debt—but when push comes to shove, and you see something you've been meaning to buy, you swipe the card anyway. You rationalize, telling yourself, I'll get a better income or My startup will succeed, and I can pay it off later. In that moment, you're substituting sound decisions with Hopium.

Exploiting Hopium

And it doesn't stop there. There are people who are fully aware of Hopium and even exploit it in others. Think about it—the self-proclaimed gurus selling courses. Take this course and you'll land your dream job. Do this program and you'll get a six-pack that'll make you more attractive. They're essentially feeding you Hopium, making you believe that by attaining that one specific thing, all your other desires will follow. It's the perfect plan all over again.

Hope vs. Gut Feeling

So does this mean we can never hope? Does it mean we have to be hyper-realistic all the time? No. There's a difference between hope and faith. Actually, I'd rather use the term gut feeling here.

To explain this better, let's use poker as an analogy. Poker players have mastered differentiating Hopium from gut feelings. In poker, everything boils down to intuition and instinct. You have to decide, based on incomplete information, whether or not to take a chance. Should you make the call or fold? It's the ultimate test of Hopium versus gut feeling.

Let's say the flop comes, and you're holding two good cards with a chance to hit a flush. Someone raises, and you call. At that moment, you're hoping for that flush to come, but there's no guarantee. Then comes the river—no flush. Now you're all in, and you've lost everything. That's Hopium at work, convincing you to stay in even when the odds were against you.

But sometimes, there's the faith—or gut feeling—that lets you know for real that the flush is coming. It's not just blind hope, but a deeper sense of knowing. That's the difference.

The Danger of Mixing Hopium and Gut Feeling

It's extremely confusing because both Hopium and Gut Feeling involve actions—you're doing something because you want a certain outcome. Whether it's pulling one more card in blackjack, taking the final shot in basketball, or making that bold call in poker, there's no clear-cut answer. But there is one very dangerous situation: mixing up Hopium with gut feeling. That's when you start subconsciously justifying your decisions as gut feelings when, in reality, they were just decisions you wanted to make all along.

Training Your Mind

So how do you train your mind to correctly differentiate Hopium from gut feeling? How do you make positive decisions that will actually play out better for your long-term success? Well, the simplest way is to play lots of poker or blackjack, since those games test your gut feelings constantly. Sure, they're games of chance, but there are moments when you just know when to stop or take another card.

If playing cards isn't practical for you, here's a framework I often use: When faced with a tough decision, your subconscious mind usually makes the first call before it gets swayed by your conscious reasoning. So go with that initial gut decision and observe the outcomes. You can even A-B test it. Make one decision in a given situation, then make a different one in a similar scenario, and see what plays out better in the long run.

The Key to Combating Hopium

Ultimately, though, the real key to combating Hopium is ruthless discipline to take action. Whether you're acting in line with Hopium or against it, you have to take action. If it's a bad decision, you'll fail and learn from it. If it's a good one, great—you've won, and you've learned too. This creates a feedback loop, which is the most important thing. Without that loop, you just end up stuck in Hopium, wasting time and never acting. The worst thing you can do is be lazy and let Hopium keep you from making any decisions at all.

A calm mind helps too—one that accepts whatever happens, happens. Hopium will manifest either way, whether you act or don't act, so the key is to keep moving forward regardless.

The Journey

I write all of this because Hopium is such an addictive drug, and I think a lot of young people are addicted to it these days. Hopium keeps us from making great decisions, and especially as a leader—or just as someone wanting to progress in life—it's crucial to make good decisions. The first step to making good decisions is recognizing when you're influenced by Hopium. You'll encounter Hopium in almost every micro-decision you make. But the key is identifying it correctly.

If you can tap into your gut feeling, that's even better. As many poker players say, gut feeling has a certain power. It's a very powerful thing when you can access it, but it can also be misleading sometimes. Personally, I focus on making the best decisions that combine logical thinking with my initial gut feeling, and I think you should do the same. But whatever you do, just be aware of Hopium because it's a hell of a drug.

May Everyone be well.

James